Round 4 of MotoGP and the season is starting to take on the very first edges of a discernible shape. It won’t truly settle into a pattern until the series reaches Jerez, and more specifically, after the test at Jerez on Monday. But three rounds have been enough to at least set the scene for the rest of 2025.
Normally, the Qatar round of MotoGP at the Lusail International Circuit is the opening race of the season. But with Ramadan falling in the month of March this year, staging a race safely would have been difficult, so MotoGP heads to Qatar in April. This matters, because it is going to be noticeably warmer than it was a month earlier. And the fact that the MotoGP race takes place 2 hours after sunset (only Moto3 takes place during daylight), means track temperatures are going to be warmer too.
The track itself is always a complicated and tricky proposition. Resurfacing in 2023 gave the track a lot of grip, and now, some 21 months or so later, the new surface is just over its peak, but still extremely grippy. The use the track gets should have taken the sharpest edges off the stones in the asphalt, but it remains an extremely abrasive surface.
Not least because although urban developments are slowly inching north toward the circuit from Qatari capital Doha, the Lusail International Circuit is still surrounded by arid, barren ground. It is not quite in the middle of the desert, as it once was when MotoGP first visited back in 2004. But there is enough sand and dust flying around to coat the track whenever it isn’t used for a few days. Or if a stiff breeze picks up from the west. All that sand is very tough on tires.
Data from the last two outings at the resurfaced track have prompted Michelin to change the allocation. They are bringing a reinforced soft rear and a stiffer front to the circuit to cope. The new surface saw the pole time improve by a second, and the race lap record improve by 1.5 seconds. Michelin’s new rear tire took another second off the pole record and three tenths off the race record. Stiffer tires are likely to see more time shaved off the records this year.
There is a lot to like about the Lusail International Circuit, but also a few major things to hate. Despite being close to the Qatari capital, attendance at the race weekend is dismal. Last year, just over 15,000 fans turned up on Sunday. There are several circuits around the world where that many fans turn up on Thursday, and the vast majority have more fans on a Sunday than Qatar has over the entire weekend.
Of course, the Qatar round of MotoGP does not need to make money in the same way that most circuits do. MotoGP races in Qatar in part because the circuit owner and promoter are wealthy enough to be able to pay for the race out of their own pockets. And it is part of Qatar’s much wider project of sportswashing an authoritarian regime with a poor human rights record. But the premium wealthy Qataris pay to host MotoGP also funds a large part of the overseas travel budget for the series. So, swings and roundabouts, as they say in the UK.
All that money, and the unused land around the circuit makes it probably the safest track on the calendar. There is runoff everywhere, with barriers a long way from the asphalt. If MotoGP were to allow the unfettered pursuit of speed and horsepower, the Lusail International Circuit could certainly accommodate it. The counterargument to those who hate the rules brought in to reduce top speeds is that we would end up running the entire season at Qatar.
The best thing about Lusail, however, is the circuit layout. It has a mixture of everything – a long front straight for top speed, a couple of spots where the bikes are braking hard, and a lot of long and flowing corners. It is a track where compromise is needed, and where a lot of different types of bike can go well. Ducati, Honda, and Yamaha have all had wins here, and counting sprint races, all five current manufacturers have stood on the podium.
The front straight is one of the fastest of the season, Johan Zarco’s 362.4 km/h from 2021 only topped at Mugello. Like Mugello, it is fast because you carry a bit of speed out of the second gear corner onto a straight which is just over a kilometer in length. The downside of gaining all that speed is that you have to lose it all again before the slow right hander at Turn 1. The upside for photographers is that this is an ideal place for trying to capture the carbon discs glowing as the riders brake to get the bike stopped.
On the exit of Turn 1, you flick the bike left again for Turn 2. As it is the first left in over 1.5km, you have to treat it with respect, or you slide ignominiously into the gravel, right in front of the newly constructed VIP building. Out of Turn 2, a quick flick right again through Turn 3 and then accelerate hard again up toward Turn 4.
Turn 4 is the first of two 90° right handers, then another burst of gas down toward the next left, the very tight Turn 6, the only place you use first gear. More hard acceleration and up a couple of gears to the next right at Turn 7, and the start of the more flowing section of the track.
From here, opportunities to pass start to open up, if you can carry corner speed. After the right of Turn 7, the track flicks left for 8 and then slightly harder right again for Turn 9. Carry speed out of Turn 9 and you can try to poke a wheel ahead into the tight left of Turn 10. Fail there, and you can try to get drive off the edge of tire through the long left of Turn 11, using the seamless gearbox to shift up and accelerate toward the next passing point.
Turn 12 is a good place to try to get past the rider head, but it is the first of three rights in quick succession, and taking a position is not necessarily a guarantee of keeping it. If you’re passed through 12, then your best bet is to latch onto the back through Turns 13 and 14 and dive up the inside at the next left at Turn 15.
The penultimate corner is also your penultimate chance to pass. If you can’t get ahead in Turn 15, you can always try in the last corner, Turn 16. But you risk losing drive onto the straight if you’re too aggressive. You may pay for that on all but the final lap, getting caught by the end of the straight. But it is worth it on the last lap, when the short run to the finish line means you stand a chance of making a pass stick.
Wide open, or closed shop?
Though every manufacturer has been on the podium here, the circuit favors the most all-round bike. And that, indisputably, is the Ducati. Pecco Bagnaia’s victory in Austin made it their 20th victory in a row, and their 69th race with at least one bike on the podium. They also swept the podium for the fifth GP in a row, the last time the podium was missing a Ducati was when Pedro Acosta took third on the KTM in Thailand last year.
So there’s every chance a Ducati will win, but which one? Alex Márquez arrives at Qatar as championship leader, after his brother crashed out in Austin. Traditionally, Lusail has not been a great track for the Gresini Ducati rider, his best result fourth in the 2023 sprint race. But Austin was also supposed to be a poor track for Alex Márquez, and he still managed to finish second on both Saturday and Sunday. It is getting harder and harder to write him off based on previous form.
If you had to name a favorite for the weekend, it would probably be Pecco Bagnaia. The Ducati Lenovo rider loves the track, because it suits the way he rides. He can use his strength in braking – using the rear to help stop the bike – and has a solid record here. He won in 2024, and was narrowly beaten by Fabio Di Giannantonio in 2023. He is fresh off victory in Texas, and brimming with confidence.
He will have to beat his Ducati Lenovo teammate to get the win, of course. Marc Márquez has a couple of hurdles to overcome. First is the humiliation of crashing out of the lead at COTA after attempting to manipulate the start. Second is the fact that Márquez has a poor record at Qatar, though of course that is a very relative term in his case. The eight-time world champion has only won here once, back in 2014, though he has been on the podium a number of times.
Making amends
Will a suitably chastened Marc Márquez redouble his efforts in Qatar? You can make a very good case that one of the reasons that he struggled at Qatar is because he was on a Honda, and for a significant part of his career, his rivals were on better machinery. But this is also a track that doesn’t suit him, with too many right handers and not enough opportunities to exploit his strength with the front of the bike.
Dark horse in Qatar is the rider who finished third in Austin. Fabio Di Giannantonio showed what he is capable of last time out in Texas, despite the physical demands placed on his still recovering shoulder. Qatar should be much better for him, both because the track isn’t so physically tough, but also because he’s had another 10 days to recover strength.
The Lusail International Circuit also has a special place in Di Giannantonio’s heart. He saved his career here at the end of 2023, when he won the penultimate round, taking his maiden victory after finishing second in the sprint the day before. The Italian carries a lot of confidence into this race, and though the odds are not exactly stacked in his favor, he is going to be a fly in the ointment for anyone with podium ambitions.
Back at last
Qatar also sees the return of reigning world champion Jorge Martin. He has to pass a physical before he is allowed to ride, but the fact that he posted a video of himself doing push ups on his Instagram page is a sign that he should manage that. Riding on Friday will be a victory in itself, and should give him an idea of how fit he is. No doubt he will test how he feels when he wakes up on Saturday morning, so that Lorenzo Savadori can step in to replace him from FP2, if need be.
There is no reason to expect Martin to be competitive, however. Apart from not yet being fully fit, he has missed all but 13 laps of preseason testing. He is probably somewhere around 5000 km down on the rest of the field in terms of time on the bike this season, and only has a couple of laps on the 2025 Aprilia RS-GP. His first objective will be to test his fitness, his second to try to understand the bike. It is going to be a while before we get to see what Jorge Martin can do.
If there is a challenge to come from Aprilia, it will be from Marco Bezzecchi or Ai Ogura. But neither have particularly strong results at the track. The bike is much better than it has been in the past, and given the speed at Buriram, should have the horsepower and stopping ability to be competitive. Qatar is an ideal place to see where Aprilia stands so far this year, after an optimistic start in testing. After positive signs in the early rounds, there is a chance of a surprise.
Making it last
On paper, Qatar should be good for KTM. Brad Binder was on the podium here twice, in 2022 and 2024. And Pedro Acosta had a very strong showing on his debut in the MotoGP class here last year.
But KTM faces two challenges in Qatar. The first is that the Austrian factory is still struggling with chatter, something the grip of the track is likely to exacerbate. The second is that the abrasive nature of the track tends to wear tires quickly, and the KTM has struggled when the grip starts to drop. KTM is still looking for balance with the bike, and is not yet close to being competitive.
Heavy tire wear could play into the hands of Tech3 KTM’s Enea Bastianini. The Italian had a miserable time in testing, but has been slowly adapting to the RC16. Austin was the first race he felt at one with the bike, he said. If he can carry that into Qatar, and use his ability to save rear tire for the end of the race, he could be in for a solid result. This is, after all, the circuit he took his first MotoGP victory back in 2022.
Progress at last?
As for the Japanese factories, their work continues. Jack Miller looked very strong on the Prima Pramac Yamaha in Austin, and Luca Marini had arguably his best race on the Honda HRC Castrol bike. Marini has a very solid record at Qatar in recent years, taking pole and two podiums in 2023. That is excessively optimistic on the Honda in 2025, but there is reason to hope for a good result.
The same is true for Johann Zarco on the LCR Honda. Zarco has a good record at Qatar, and has been very strong since the start of the season. The RC213V is a much more rounded package this year, HRC having finally found a much better balance with the bike. The machine has two problems, however: a lack of grip and a lack of top speed. Both are going to be an issue at Qatar.
Finally to Yamaha. Jack Miller’s performance in Austin is reason for optimism, and a sign the bike has potential. Fabio Quartararo was strong in the sprint in Texas, and the bike now has the speed to at least follow the Ducatis down the front straight.
On the edge
Where the Yamahas are suffering is in braking. Fabio Quartararo complained that the M1 is good in straight braking, when he can use the front to stop the bike, but he can’t use the rear to help slow down. In the modern era of MotoGP, that is crucial.
The other issue facing the Yamaha M1 is a lack of drive grip on the edge of the tire. That is not so much of a problem down the front straight, but out of Turn 10 and along 11, and then through the triple right at Turns 12, 13, and 14, you are on the throttle on the edge of tire, and trying to drive out of the corner. That was once Yamaha’s strong point, and one they need to find again.
Who will lead the championship when we leave Qatar to head back to Europe? Your guess is as good as mine. Alex Márquez leads his brother Marc by a single point. Pecco Bagnaia trails the Gresini Ducati rider by just 12 points. There is every chance that the championship will be even tighter when the MotoGP paddock packs up on Sunday night.
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