There are many wonderful racetracks on the MotoGP calendar, but only two great ones. We can argue over whether Mugello or Phillip Island deserves the title of greatest circuit on the calendar, but that is just splitting hairs. The things that make them great are the same, so we are only arguing about their differences.
What makes Phillip Island such a wonderful racetrack? It is a natural circuit, snaking across the terrain by instinct rather than design. It feels as if it was laid down by a lost ancient people who built it as a place to worship the gods of speed, and was later unearthed and restored after the invention of the racing motorcycle. It fits motorcycles better than almost any other place on Earth.
The reason for that is simple: it flows. The track is fast, flowing, with few spots decided by braking or sheer acceleration. At Phillip Island, courage, skill, talent, and an innate understanding of the mysteries of riding a motorcycle at high speed are what make the difference. It helps if you are on a good bike, but here, the rider makes the difference.
To see why the rider makes a difference at Phillip Island, here’s the data overlay provided by Triumph from their Moto2 press release. The green lines are from a lap by a rider from the top five, while the red lines are from a rider inside the top 15. Ignore the red lines for the moment and focus on the green lines. And while this is for Moto2 bikes, the patterns it shows is broadly in line with MotoGP.
The two bottom traces show brake pressure, the force the rider is using to squeeze the front brake lever (upper) or rear brake pedal (bottom). You will notice they only apply the brakes in six places, and only four of those with significant pressure. Yet Phillip Island has twelve corners. So that means there are six corners where the riders are not using the brakes at all.
The throttle trace (third from the top) shows something similar. Through those corners where they are not applying the brakes, the riders are closing the throttle and using engine braking. And where they are accelerating, they are having to roll on the throttle to balance maximum drive against the threat of wheelspin as the bike is on its side. In Moto2, the riders are only at maximum throttle for about 12% of the lap.
Put this all together and what does it mean? Phillip Island is a track where rider input matters. The more precise and subtle you are, the faster you are around the circuit. It is a track where the riders are constantly feeling for the limits of grip, trying to find the balance between sliding and driving forward.
It is also a track where the bike is barely upright. Only from the exit of Turn 12 and along the length of the Gardner Straight is the bike not leaned over, as riders carry speed from the long and fast final turn onto the front straight. Accelerating to over 355 km/h, they must hold their nerve as they appear to be heading at full speed toward the Bass Strait.
Relief comes as the track dips away, and the riders start to brake for Turn 1, Doohan Corner, the fast and sweeping right where the riders scrub off speed before peeling into the right hander. It is a point which gets more dangerous each year as speed increase. There is no more room to add runoff, the service road between Turns 2 and 3 already closed to photographers during the session because of safety concerns. Crash at Doohan, and you are going very fast. You are going to travel a long way. And it is going to hurt.
How do you know crashing at Turn 1 is bad? It has one of the lowest crash rates of the year, despite being a prime spot for crashing, at the end of a straight. Riders approach Doohan Corner with a mixture trepidation, respect, and awe. A bit like the man the corner was named after.
Phillip Island encapsulated
Out of Turn 1, a quick burst of throttle to accelerate before braking and turning for Turn 2, the seemingly everlasting Southern Loop. The bike spends a lot of time on the left side of the tire here, the first of a punishing series of assaults on the rubber on the left.
Accelerating hard out of the Southern Loop, the bikes enter a corner which typifies the Island, and which will give you three or four tenths if you master it. Casey Stoner did, which is why Turn 3 is named after him. Tip the bike in early and get it sliding, and the wind which blows hard once you pass the advertising hoarding on the inside will carry you through the turn, steering with the rear. There are very few indeed who can manage this the way Stoner did. But if you can get close, you can gain an awful lot of time.
Time you will need, as the next corner is the hardest braking spot on the circuit. Riders may be braking from a much higher speed at Turn 1, but at Turn 4, once Honda and now Miller Corner, the riders are having to almost stand the bike on its nose before tipping into the tight right hairpin.
If Turn 1 is the place where you don’t want to crash, Turn 4 is the place where you are most likely to. Firstly, because you are braking so hard and going so slow. And secondly, because you are flipping from the red hot left side of the tire to the right, which has just lost any warmth it might have retained to the Antarctic chill of the gusts blowing in from the Bass Strait.
Making the difference
Pick the bike up and drive out through Turn 5, a barely perceptible right kink before turning hard left again at Turn 6, the aptly named Siberia. From Siberia, the track flows left and then right through the Hayshed, before climbing the hill up to Lukey Heights and Turn 9.
There is a lot going on at Lukey. The smart approach is to take the inside line and then, as you drop down the hill towards MG, the tight right hairpin and the best place to overtake before the finish line, close the door on anyone trying to get past. The alternative, especially if you are following, is to carry more speed round the outside of Lukey Heights and then try to stuff your bike up the inside of the rider you have (hopefully) just passed on the way into MG.
MG has so often been the decider, but it is not always so. Out of MG you start to accelerate, clicking up through the gears with the bike heeled over a long way left. Carefully managing wheelspin, and trying to convert it as perfectly as possible into drive, you can try to draft through Turns 11 and 12 before using your extra speed to fire past on the long run to the finish line. Exiting Turn 12 in the lead is a good thing, but it is not an absolute guarantee of victory.
Weather warning
If the topography of the track is what makes it such a glorious circuit, its meteorology makes it even more challenging. Sitting on the edge of the Bass Strait with nothing but Tasmania between it and the Southern Ocean and Antarctica beyond, it can be wild, wet, windy. And in half an hour, the rain can be gone and the sun come out, with the wind now quickly drying the track.
But when it’s bad, it’s really bad. In 2023, with the weather set to worsen through Sunday, the MotoGP race was moved to Saturday. The Moto3 race happened on a soaking track, and the Moto2 race started but was red flagged before half distance. After a soaking warm up, MotoGP’s rescheduled sprint race, swapped to Sunday, was canceled.
There is a reason the weather has such an influence on MotoGP. The Australian round of MotoGP is run by the Australian Grand Prix Corporation, which also runs the Melbourne F1 race. As Melbourne F1 is always near the start of the year, MotoGP is at the end – after all, what would the members of the Australian GP Corporation do with themselves for the rest of the year if F1 and MotoGP were both held in the late Antipodean summer?
That means MotoGP is stuck in late winter/early spring, and the feistier weather that entails. From time to time, rumors start in the paddock that MotoGP will be moving to the start of the season. But those rumors inevitably fizzle out, a product more of wishful thinking than actual reality.
Hard rain is gonna fall
The weather this weekend is a bit of a mixed bag. A cold front is currently making its way east, causing trouble along the way. Phillip Island will get the worst of it on Friday, with heavy rain set for the late afternoon, putting a premium on setting a quick lap early on in afternoon practice. The rain should depart at the weekend, replaced by strong winds on Saturday, while Sunday looks to be good.
It will be cold, however. And that is going to pose something of a conundrum for the MotoGP teams. Phillip Island has a new surface on an already demanding track. The last time MotoGP rode here without testing was 2013, a memorable race which saw then single tire supplier Bridgestone impose compulsory pit stops to swap bikes.
Riders were only allowed to do 10 laps on one set of tires before pitting, and Marc Márquez – then a MotoGP rookie – and his team decided that meant they could come in at the end of lap 11. They were wrong, and Márquez was black flagged, losing valuable points. He would go on to win the title, but it was a closer run thing than was necessary.
The WorldSBK paddock suffered the same fate earlier in the year, and that experience has informed the choice of tires Pirelli have brought for the Moto2 and Moto3 classes. Michelin does not have the same luxury, but the French tire manufacturer will be bringing a third spec of rear tire – soft, medium and hard – with the medium and hard compounds using the same heat-resistant construction as Mandalika.
Taking its toll
We will probably not see a repeat of the fiasco of 2013, but the rear tires are in for a pounding. Tire wear depends on abrasion, load, heat, and speed. At Phillip Island, the bike spends a lot of the time on the left side of the tire under power, which stresses the rear enormously.
Raise the speed and you raise the load, and judging by the times set by the WorldSBK riders, lap times are going to be really fast. Nicolo Bulega’s 2024 pole time of 1’27.916 was over 1.3 seconds faster than the previous pole record set by Tom Sykes in 2020. Bulega’s best race time of 1’28.564 was 1.5 seconds better than the 2019 record held by Jonathan Rea. Those times are very close to MotoGP’s times. Bulega’s pole time would have put him on the second row of the 2023 MotoGP grid, while his race time is four tenths off the outright lap record set by Marc Márquez in that fateful 2013 race.
It seems safe to say that lap records are going to be shattered this weekend. We could see 1’25s in qualifying, and Márquez’ record, set on Bridgestones, finally broken by a rider on Michelins.
All to play for
Who is going to take that prize? As I said, Phillip Island is a track where the rider can make the difference, where talent rises to the top. The problem is, the best MotoGP talent are mostly all on the best bike, so it won’t change the front of the race much. We are set for another chapter in the tense battle of Pecco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin, with supporting appearances from Enea Bastianini and Marc Márquez. We might see a KTM or GASGAS poke their head above the parapet, and conditions could be right for the Aprilias, especially Maverick Viñales. But it would be foolish to bet against a Ducati.
With his lead cut to 10 points, Phillip Island comes at the perfect time for Jorge Martin. The Pramac Ducati rider ruled at the Island last year, taking pole by over four tenths of a second. So strong was he that he succumbed to hubris, electing to try to race the soft rear tire rather than the medium. He very nearly pulled it off too.
Very nearly, but not quite, running out of rubber with a lap and a half to go. In the end, he finished fifth, behind Johann Zarco, Pecco Bagnaia, Fabio Di Giannantonio and Brad Binder, then teammate Zarco sparing his blushes by taking 5 valuable points from Bagnaia.
That is not a mistake he will make in 2024. Nor should he: he has a much easier task. Last he, he came to Phillip Island trailing Pecco Bagnaia by 18 points. This year, Martin leads by 10, with no other rivals in with a realistic chance at the title. His tire choice is dictated by one factor only: do whatever Bagnaia does, and try to beat him at a track where Martin has the upper hand.
Playing defense
Can Bagnaia do anything about Martin? His record the past two years has been very solid indeed, P3 in 2022 and P2 last year. A podium is all Bagnaia needs to keep him in the game, and take the title fight to tracks where he is stronger. His objective is to stay with Martin if he can, beat him if possible and limit the damage if he can’t. Sepang and Valencia are the tracks where Bagnaia can press home his advantage. But it will be nerve-wracking waiting until the last two rounds to make his move.
Perhaps the best hope for Bagnaia is for a spoiler to intervene and take points away from Jorge Martin. And spoilers, there are plenty. Marc Márquez, for example, the most successful rider at Phillip Island, with three victories in MotoGP and one in 125s. The disadvantages which the GP23 has compared to the GP24s are less relevant here, with less hard braking and hard acceleration. Marc Márquez is perfectly capable of taking the fight to the leaders on an inferior bike at a track he loves.
Then there’s Enea Bastianini. Managing tires is the Ducati Lenovo rider’s forte, so a late charge as Phillip Island’s new surface gorges itself on the rear Michelin rubber is just what you would expect of the Italian. Surprisingly, Bastianini does not have a great record at Phillip Island, his best result a fifth place in 2022. Last year he could do no better than eighth, but there is hope for a much better showing this weekend. Bastianini is in form, and eager to leave Ducati with another win or two under his belt.
Is the Orange Crush back?
The real wildcards are on different bikes. On paper, the flowing layout of Phillip Island shouldn’t suit the KTMs. And yet Brad Binder started from second on the grid last year, and finished just eight tenths behind the winner. Unfortunately, that only got him a fourth place, Phillip Island dishing up one of the many classics it seems to produce each year. The South African has three victories here – the second most successful rider still racing, though his wins came in Moto2 and Moto3. But this year’s KTM RC16 is better than last year’s, so he has to be a factor.
The most dangerous rider on the grid is surely Pedro Acosta. Since getting the new KTM chassis at Mandalika, the GASGAS Tech3 rider has looked like a genuine threat. His first victory should have come last time out, at Motegi, but an overeagerness saw him crash out of both sprint race and Sunday grand prix. Those were painful but useful lessons, and if he has learned them, he is going to be a handful for the championship leaders to handle.
If there’s a dark horse on the MotoGP grid at Phillip Island, it is surely Maverick Viñales. The factory Aprilia rider is strong at the Australian track, having won here in MotoGP in 2018 and been on the podium the two years before. Last year, neither Viñales nor teammate Aleix Espargaro could make much of an impression, but this year could be different. The 2024 Aprilia RS-GP turns better, but is worse in braking than last year’s bike. Phillip Island is a track where turning matters so much more than braking, so perhaps the cards will fall in Viñales’ favor.
The one thing that weighs against an Aprilia revival is the new track surface. The RS-GP thrives when grip is low, but predictable. That will very much not be the case at Phillip Island, so Viñales and Espargaro will have their work cut out.
Redemption
What can we expect? Put your money on a close-fought race between a large group. That is another reason why Phillip Island has a claim to be the greatest racetrack on the planet. The circuit seems to serve up instant classics year after year, the layout making overtaking easy and following other riders possible without pushing front tire pressures sky high. This weekend has all the ingredients for two thrilling races on Saturday and Sunday. After the procession at Motegi, that is badly needed.
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