It wouldn’t be Phillip Island if we weren’t talking about the weather. The 2023 race was moved from Sunday to Saturday because of an approaching storm – a decision entirely validated by the horrific downpour that forced the cancellation of the relocated sprint, and the red flagging of the Moto2 race after just 9 laps. In 2025, it is the wind which the riders are worried about, a perennial problem at the Island.
Gusts of nearly 60 km/h are forecast for Sunday, and after windy conditions today, there were a number of riders calling for Sunday’s GP to be switched to Saturday, replacing the sprint, as Dorna had done in 2023. Together with the bumps which are sprouting from Phillip Island’s new surface, some riders feel it is going to be too dangerous to race on Sunday.
Pecco Bagnaia was the main voice leading the call. “The track is very, very bumpy, and the wind today was already on the limit,” the Ducati Lenovo rider said. “It looks like this will be the day with least amount of wind. Sunday could be very tricky like it was 2 years ago so it will be important to speak well in the Safety Commission and try to find some solutions.”
Luca Marini backed Bagnaia up. “I hope somebody will take the decision before seeing Moto2 riders crash because this is something we have seen in the past and something we do not want,” the Honda HRC Castrol rider said. Given the speeds involved, it was better to be cautious, he insisted. “It is better to be more careful and on the safe side because this track is heavy when you crash.”
The proposal may have been discussed in the Safety Commission, the chance MotoGP riders have every Friday to speak with representatives from Dorna, the FIM and Race Direction about safety concerns, but it looks like the proposal has been rejected. When the race was moved in 2023, the decision was announced on Friday afternoon.
In 2023, it wasn’t just the wind, but the extreme rainfall the storm was expected to bring that caused the cancellation. In 2025, Sunday actually looks like being the warmest day of the weekend, despite the strong winds. That, and the fact that the forecast winds appear to be weakening is probably what swayed Race Direction. Also because they have another option, which is to wait an hour. The winds are due to die down as the afternoon proceeds.
They can’t postpone for long, however. Some teams and riders will have flights booked for Malaysia on Sunday night, and having to reschedule would cause multiple headaches. Of course, this leaves Moto3 and Moto2 trying to ride in the worst of the wind, but here too Race Direction have a choice. They could cancel Moto3 (Jose Antonio Rueda has already wrapped up the title in the smallest class) and either shorten or postpone Moto2. Canceling Moto2 might be unpopular with the riders, given how close the championship is, with just 9 points between Manu Gonzalez and Diogo Moreira, however.
So for the sake of argument, let’s proceed as if there is going to be a sprint race on Saturday and a full-length GP on Sunday, either delayed or not. What conclusions can we draw after Friday?
Well, firstly, there is no stopping Marco Bezzecchi. The factory Aprilia Racing rider is still in pain from the crashes he had in Motegi and Mandalika, his back causing him serious problems. It didn’t stop him from obliterating Jorge Martin’s outright lap record from 2023, slashing 0.754 seconds off to drop it to 1’26.492, after first posting a 1’26.580 to become the first rider to get into the 1’26s around Phillip Island.
“I expected a bit better with the pain, to be honest. This morning was not too bad, but this afternoon I was suffering much more,” Bezzecchi said on Friday afternoon. “Of course I’m suffering a bit physically, but then with the adrenaline as you know, it’s something that can help, and also when you feel decent with the bike, everything becomes a little bit less painful.”
He didn’t feel the pain had slowed him down. “Without the pain, I think the same,” he replied when asked if he could have been faster if he was physically 100%. “As I said before, at the end, on the bike, with adrenaline and everything, I feel something better. I felt good with the bike, so this helped me to make a decent lap time and the feeling with the bike was good. It was a positive day, apart from the pain that I expected better, but I also expected to suffer.”
Can he convert his Friday form into a result in the sprint and GP? Even if he didn’t have a double long lap penalty in the full-length race for the crash with Marc Márquez in Mandalika, Sunday would have been tough. “For sure, the race distance is the toughest one. Also because it’s on the last day. So we have to work well to try to maintain the body in the same condition,” Bezzecchi said. Improving was impossible on a race weekend, but he hoped he could prevent things from being worse.
That Bezzecchi is helped by the fact that the Aprilia is strong around Phillip Island is backed up by Raul Fernandez ending the day in second. The Trackhouse Racing rider may be nearly three tenths slower than Bezzecchi, but he is also over a tenth faster than the rest.
His best time capped a whole first day that had gone well, Fernandez explained on Friday. “To be honest, I didn’t expect the pace that I got,” the Spaniard said. “I made a really good time attack, that normally it is something that I can’t make like I want. Today we made a really good step on the time attack. But I think the most important thing from today is that we take all the information that we need to ready on Saturday for the sprint and Sunday for the race.”
That hasn’t been the case on previous weekends, but the Trackhouse Aprilia team had worked well, Fernandez said. “I think we made a really good job. Normally on Friday we had a lot of work to do. Today since the first exit on track, I feel comfortable with the electronics, I feel comfortable with the bike. Just we need to see how we take more potential from my side, because the bike is ready.”
It is the third weekend in a row where Fernandez has been strong. “Now we are in a very good moment after Mandalika, after Japan,” the Spaniard said. “I think the Misano test was one of the keys that now helps me a lot. During the last 3 years in MotoGP, when we had a test, I never felt something like that, that we can improve a lot in the test. This year, every test that we do, we make a step, and for me, Misano we made also another step. We didn’t change anything on the bike in terms of aerodynamics, we just tried to improve our setup, and I feel now that I can use a little bit my riding style.”
Can that translate into a result on Saturday or Sunday? The first key is to start on the first two rows, Fernandez said. Whether he has the pace or not is hard to tell, as he was one of the few riders to use both the medium and the soft rear tire for his long runs, where others stuck with the soft rear tire. He did a 1’28.2 on a 10-lap old medium rear, and a 1’27.7 on his sixth lap on a soft rear.
But if he can lap in the high 1’27s during the sprint on Saturday, and maybe even the long race on Sunday, he has a decent chance. There is a large group of riders all running similar pace on old tires, with some surprising names among them. As you might expect, Marco Bezzecchi is among them, setting a 1’27.692 on a soft rear with 15 laps on (and he was a tenth quicker the lap before).
But I don’t think many people had been expecting to see Alex Rins among the top contenders, the Monster Energy Yamaha rider sixth fastest overall and posting a 1’27.7 after 13 laps, and a 1’27.5 after 12 laps. That was down to the Yamaha being good around Phillip Island, Rins admitted, but more surprisingly, the test on Yamaha’s V4 had helped a lot as well.
“At the Misano test, when we tried the V4, I was feeling quite good and I was riding a little bit in a different way, a bit different to what I was used to ride with the inline four,” Rins explained. He has been able to carry that over to other tracks. “It’s true it’s true that since the day that we tried the V4, I made a step in terms of going a little bit faster over one lap. Also in terms of, I’m able to be more constant. I don’t do many mistakes in a lap. I’m able to stop the bike better. So yeah I’m quite happy about this progression.”
How does this work? If a rider is going down a dead end on their current bike, riding a different one can help them to break negative habits and make changes to how they ride. Because the feeling changes, they are forced to change their riding style, and that can carry over. It is why riders train on lots of different types of bike. The last thing you want to do is get stuck in a rut, and Alex Rins appears to have used the V4 test to break out of the one he was in.
Monster Energy Yamaha teammate Fabio Quartararo is also up among the group capable of doing 1’27.7s to 1’27.9s on old tires. It also includes Pertamina Enduro VR46 Ducati’s Fabio Di Giannantonio, the Gresini Ducati of Alex Márquez, the Honda of Luca Marini and KTM’s Pedro Acosta. It is hard to pick a favorite among the group, as all of them are on similar pace.
But it is also clear from the runs that most of them intend to try to race the soft rear on Sunday. Saturday’s sprint race is 13 laps, but all of them put more than that on a soft rear. Marco Bezzecchi racked up 20 laps on his soft rear, ending with a couple of 1’28.4s, while Fabio Quartararo did 19 laps.
That is still not quite enough to get into the danger zone. “The tire drop doesn’t feel crazy, but it never does here,” Prima Pramac Yamaha’s Jack Miller said. “It always gets to the last four, five laps, that’s when they fall off an edge. So we have to wait and see when that comes.” The Australian was fastest on Friday morning, much to the joy of the local fans, but missed out on Q2, finishing thirteenth, just over a tenth off of Pedro Acosta’s tenth spot.
Pol Espargaro had added to Miller’s headache, along with bumping his former teammate and now KTM stablemate Brad Binder out of Q2. The Spanish veteran was the fastest KTM rider, ending timed practice in eighth.
Binder hadn’t been surprised that Espargaro was capable of that kind of speed. “Since I’ve known him, he’s been incredible,” the South African said of Pol Espargaro. “When it’s time to put in a lap, he can do something special. He did a great job and it’s really cool to see.”
Does this herald a possible return to full-time racing, as Espargaro had suggested back in Hungary? “No,” the KTM test rider acknowledged. “I have speed, but it doesn’t change there are faster guys on the grid, and younger than me.”
He had has his time in MotoGP, Espargaro admitted. “Unfortunately I had a big injury and needed to step away from this championship. I’m fast and had good speed but my time is over. You feel and you have to accept these kinds of things.”
But that didn’t mean he was downcast about it. “Now I just enjoy these times. When I come here I can race and I enjoy a lot to be competitive enough to face the best riders in the world. This makes me so proud. also I’m happy I’m a tool for KTM to improve the bike and to help the guys when I’m racing. Everyone have its momentum. Mine has gone. Now I’m just enjoying the moment I have now.”
Finally, to Pecco Bagnaia. Like Raul Fernandez, his race pace is difficult to tell, because he didn’t manage to put in any long runs. He struggled on one bike, but was relatively competitive on the other, despite them being identical, he said.
“Luckily, one bike is working. The other one, for some reason, has the same problem as Indonesia. So it’s quite difficult to push, to make laps. Luckily this time I have a bike that’s working in a normal way,” Bagnaia said. That doesn’t mean that he has the confidence he had in Motegi back, however. “I don’t feel like in Japan. I feel like before. I’m still having problems in the braking and the entrance.”
It was still good enough to be in Q2, and a qualifying position closer to the front, the Ducati Lenovo rider said. But getting a good start and being at the end of the pack will be vital. “Like this I cannot do a race like Japan. If I start well and overtake in the first laps I can be in the front, but if not, I remain stuck there,” Bagnaia told reporters.
What does this mean for Bagnaia’s chances in the race? In reality, I don’t think even Pecco Bagnaia knows. He doesn’t have the confidence he found at the Misano test and at Motegi, but at least he is not in the doldrums he found himself in at Mandalika. I’m not even sure what another middle-of-the-pack weekend would mean for the Italian.
Are his two bikes really identical? We have no reason to believe they aren’t. But here, Bagnaia’s brilliance is working against him. The Italian is incredibly sensitive when it comes to feeling what the bike is doing, and the feedback it is giving. Pretty much every MotoGP rider can feel millimeter changes in setup, and Bagnaia is even more sensitive than most.
Even though bikes are nominally identical, the parts will have different usage on them, frames and yokes may have been crashed and though not visibly or dangerously weakened, just had enough of a blow to slightly change the way the bike gives feedback. That may not normally be enough for a rider to notice, but a hypersensitive one like Bagnaia may well feel it. And when a rider like Bagnaia has lost all his confidence, he can’t put that feeling to the back of his mind.
Phillip Island probably isn’t the place where Pecco Bagnaia reinvents himself. He may have to wait until Sepang. Or he may have to wait until he can test the GP26, and hope that that bike brings improvement.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider supporting MotoMatters.com. You can help by either taking out a subscription, supporting us on Patreon, by making a donation. You can find out more about subscribing to MotoMatters.com here.