Indonesia loves MotoGP. Which other country sees its president turn up at every MotoGP event on its nation’s soil? Which other country has such a mass following of the sport? Where else are you going to find yourself overtaken on one side by someone on a Rossi replica scooter and on the other by a Márquez replica Honda?
The following for the sport is massive in Indonesia. To the point of mortal danger: more than once we have seen fans threatened to be crushed as they throng for a glimpse of their heroes at public events. A sizable fraction of social media followers for anyone in the paddock will be from Indonesia. MotoGP is everywhere there.
So it is fitting that Indonesia should have a MotoGP race. It is just a shame that it is not at a track where the grandstands would be packed, and crowd sizes rivaling or exceeding Le Mans, as it would be if it were at Sentul, near the current capital Jakarta.
The price of progress
And here’s where the role of MotoGP in driving and expanding tourism conflicts with the interests of local fans. For the Indonesian government, it is important to take the tourism that has helped Bali grow (and overwhelmed the island) and extend it to Lombok, the next island along. That is one reason why the Indonesian president is present at MotoGP. And also why the indigenous Sasak villagers were evicted from their land, claiming ill treatment and not being paid the compensation they were promised.
Has it worked? That is hard to say. Crowds of between 60,000 and 70,000 have attended the event at the previous three editions. Solid numbers, but not the overwhelming attendances you might get at Sentul. And according to Pole Position Travel, who organize travel to MotoGP events, it is a popular race for their Australian clients.
The jury is still out. Especially as rumors persist that there are funding problems for the round. The WorldSBK event at Mandalika lasted two seasons, then quietly slipped off the calendar due to a lack of funds. MotoGP is supposed to run at the circuit through 2031, and the Indonesian Tourism Development Corporation who organize the round say that attendances and the number of events at the circuit are growing. Indonesia deserves a round of MotoGP, but it would be nice if it were somewhere Indonesians are actually likely to attend the race.
As for the circuit itself, after a difficult start – the track needed an emergency resurfacing after the first year, when stones were being thrown up as sections of the asphalt came apart – it has gotten better and better. More grandstands are built each year, facilities slowly improve, and the layout itself is both challenging and entertaining. The biggest problem is the fact it is located so close to the equator, meaning that heat is an issue, with Michelin have to bring a special heat-resistant tire to cope with the conditions.
The track has a bit of everything. The start line is at the beginning of the relatively short front straight, but is still long enough for the bikes to hit close to 315 km/h on a flying lap. You then have to brake for the tight right hander of Turn 1, shedding over 200 km/h before pitching it into the second gear corner. It is of course a good place to overtake, though the trouble is that you give the rider you just passed an entire lap to find a way back past.
Then accelerate hard before braking for the next right hander at Turn 2. You then flick the bike left immediately through Turn 3 and keep the bike hard over as you power out of Turn 4, short shifting as you prepare for the three fast rights that follow. You don’t brake for the fourth gear Turns 5 and 6, but you do roll the gas to prevent gaining too much speed, only applying the brakes gently to scrub off a bit of speed for the last right at Turn 7.
Turn 7 is the start of a fast chicane, rolling the bike right then left then right at over 190 km/h, before getting hard on the gas again out of Turn 9 and clicking up a gear to hit nearly 290 km/h.
Turn 10 is a nasty corner, a tight second gear corner where you are braking down to 90 km/h, the place where you are hardest on the brakes and again, another ideal passing spot. The track turns right and partially comes back on itself.
Out of Turn 10 you get hard on the gas again for the short squirt up to Turn 11, clicking up a gear and then braking for the next right at Turn 11. Out of Turn 11 you throw the bike left again for Turn 12, and then accelerate hard again, before braking hard for the next left at Turn 13.
Out of Turn 13 and you are thinking about the final section, where to prepare a pass and how to make sure you are in front when you emerge again onto the front straight. From Turn 13 you tip the bike on its right side and get on the gas, trying to squeeze as much acceleration out of the tires as a 50° lean angle will allow. You click up into fifth and keep accelerating, before braking for the final sector.
You are now on the right of the bike, braking hard for the hairpin and going down through the gears to 70 km/h. It is easy to force the front a little too hard and wash out the front at the hairpin of Turn 16, as Jorge Martin did while leading the sprint race last year.
A final dab of gas with the bike on its right side before braking and again and throwing the bike left for the final corner, a 90 km/h second gear affair. If you are not ahead here, it is too late. The run to the line is too short to attempt a pass. But if there is another lap, it is a very good place to prepare the exit and tuck in behind anyone ahead to give them a shot at Turn 1.
More data needed
Who should we be watching out for? With only three previous editions at the track, there is little data to go on. The first edition was won by Miguel Oliveira on a KTM, but that was in an absolute downpour, so is not particularly representative. Since then, we have had Ducatis, a KTM, and Aprilia and a Yamaha on the podium, with Pecco Bagnaia and Jorge Martin winning a sprint race and a GP each.
Pecco Bagnaia has to be the favorite in Indonesia, after his miraculous turnaround in Motegi. The Ducati Lenovo rider was back to his imperious best, and looking like the Bagnaia of 2024. Perhaps because it looks very much like he is back on a Ducati GP24. For the evidence, read my round up of Sunday’s Motegi GP, complete with photos from the Misano test.
Is Bagnaia destined to repeat that success in Indonesia? It was not a track he was looking forward to, the Italian said in Japan, because it wasn’t a track that particularly suited him. It is also a track where braking is less of a factor, and so he will not be able to use the 355mm discs which helped him in Japan. The measure of whether Bagnaia is back will be whether he is in the fight for the podium at Mandalika. If he is struggling to make Q2, then there may be cause for concern.
Uncoiled
Could the newly crowned 2025 MotoGP champion continue his domination of the premier class? Marc Márquez was unstoppable in the run up to Motegi, but the pressure of actually sealing the deal and achieving the goal he has been working toward for over two years was immense. The absolute outpouring of emotion from a man who normally manages to maintain complete self control was a sign of just what this title meant to him, and how much pressure he had put himself under.
Such was his explosive relief at winning a championship again for the first time in six years that it makes you wonder how quickly he can recover his composure and focus again. If there had been a week off between Motegi and Mandalika, he might have been able to shed some of the weight which has accumulated on his shoulders in the five years since he broke his right arm and work through the situation.
But Marc Márquez does not have an extra week. His nose is right back on the grindstone again, whether he is ready or not. As such, it is hard to predict how he will react. Maybe he will be unleashed, and start to ride with abandon, attempting to impose his will and show off just how much margin he was keeping in hand in his pursuit of the title. Or maybe he will struggle to focus without a goal, an objective, and find himself uncharacteristically wandering in the wilderness.
The safe bet is that Márquez will be just fine, and come out punching. That he will continue where he left off at Misano, pushing but playing it safe, as he starts to plot his 2026 MotoGP campaign. Because nine titles are nice. But ten titles are nicer.
Oh brother, where art thou?
Perhaps Alex will be the Márquez to watch out for. Like his brother, the Gresini Ducati rider went into Motegi clearly under a lot of pressure. He couldn’t ride the way he wanted, couldn’t get the bike stopped, and looked like a shadow of himself. Even though he knew that realistically he had no chance of winning the title, Motegi was the place his title hopes went to die. So he had that pressure, plus the spillover of the tension from his brother, who he is so very close to.
It makes sense that he will turn up to Mandalika and ride like a man liberated from the pressure of expectation. Alex Márquez doesn’t have a great history at Mandalika, with a best result of 13th in 2022. But we have seen him turn up at a bunch of tracks where his record has been patchy and end up finishing second on both Saturday and Sunday. So don’t bet against him.
The rider that got closest to the Ducatis last year was Pedro Acosta. The Red Bull KTM rider finished second last year, 1.4 seconds behind the winner, Jorge Martin. Acosta looked strong in Japan, though he ran into a recurring issue with the KTMs, the rear tire giving up halfway through the race.
That doesn’t bode well for Mandalika in 2025. This year’s iteration of the KTM RC16 has not gotten on well with the heat-resistant rear tires Michelin bring to tracks where heat is an issue, like Mandalika and Buriram. The center of the tire spins up in acceleration, burning up the rear and costing acceleration. If Mandalika plays out like Buriram and Motegi, Acosta, as well as all the other KTMs, are in trouble.
Banged up
Aprilia have been on the podium at Mandalika as well, Maverick Viñales finishing second here in 2023. Last year, Viñales finished sixth at the Indonesian GP, the Aprilia suffering in the heat. That appears to have been partially addressed, and the 2025 Aprilia RS-GP is a much better bike than the machine fielded last year, but the problem Aprilia has is its riders.
The issue isn’t talent, it’s injury. Jorge Martin is back in Spain recovering from surgery on the collarbone he broke in a first corner crash in the sprint race. Marco Bezzecchi is black and blue from being caught up in the same crash. Ai Ogura was forced to withdraw from Motegi as his right hand was still too painful from the crash he had in Misano.
Which leaves Aprilia’s fate in the hands of Raul Fernandez. At the beginning of the year, you might have written that off as a bad deal. But the Trackhouse Racing rider has slowly been making progress through the season, getting much better in the second half of the season. A seventh place in Motegi was solid, which is perhaps the best description of his current form. Fernandez probably won’t set the world on fire in Mandalika. But he might actually start to make an impression.
HRC on a roll
The most intriguing prospect in Indonesia is surely going to be what the Hondas can do. Joan Mir had an exception race in Motegi, finishing fourth on Saturday and third on Sunday, his first podium since 2021. Luca Marini has been troubling the top five for the last few rounds, though he was forced to retire with a technical problem in Japan. And now that Johann Zarco has most of the updates the factory Honda HRC Castrol team has, the Frenchman is also much happier.
Luca Marini took pole here in 2023, and finished on the podium in the sprint, and so is strong at the track. The Honda RC213V is now a very good bike, the recent updates and testing starting to pay off. The engine has more power, the aero has helped acceleration and turning, and the carbon swingarm Honda are using is a slight improvement on the previous aluminum item. If there is a factory to keep an eye on, it is surely Honda.
The same can’t be said for Yamaha. Progress for the Japanese factory appears to be stalled, Fabio Quartararo only saving their bacon in qualifying by his preternatural ability for banging out an unbelievably fast lap.
Yet Quartararo may still have hope for the Indonesian GP. He has been on the podium here twice already, in 2022 and 2023. And the Yamaha is still very strong in turning, an asset at Mandalika where there are so many fast corners.
What might also help is the fact that the bike spends so much time on the edge of the tire. At other tracks, the Yamaha has to take a more sweeping line to carry corner speed and maintain some momentum on corner exit, where the V4s simply pick the bike up and drive out of corners. That eats away at the edge of the Yamaha’s tire, putting it at a disadvantage as the race goes on.
Level playing field?
But Mandalika has a lot of sweeping corners, where you have to keep the bike heeled over and the V4s can’t pick the bike up and use their drive. So the Ducatis, Aprilias, KTMs, Hondas might be forced to fight on the Yamaha’s ground, and that might give Quartararo, Jack Miller, Alex Rins, Miguel Oliveira a chance. Maybe.
Whatever the outcome of the racing, the most intriguing part of the Indonesian GP at Mandalika is going to be the psychological effect of Motegi on all of the main players. Has Pecco Bagnaia got his mojo back along with his old bike? Can Marc Márquez be focused enough to be fast, or is he still processing the trauma of the last six years? Has Alex Márquez shed the expectations of the championship and can he get back to being the rider who has impressed throughout 2025? And will Honda’s upward trend continue, bringing a return of the mighty HRC? There is still much to look forward to at Mandalika.
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