Cleverly, Badenoch and Jenrick stay in Tory leadership race as Tugendhat knocked out – UK politics live | Politics

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Severin Carrell

Sunder Katwala, head of the British Future thinktank, has posted some interesting number-crunching on tomorrow’s vote on social media.

40 votes *guarantees* a top two place. But how many it takes to finish second depends on what the leader gets. Eg, if Cleverly got 50 votes (+11) then 36 votes (secure 5-6 of 10 votes) would be enough to secure second place

Cleverly 39
Jenrick 31
Badenoch 30
(Tugendhat 20)

Eg, hypothetically, If Cleverly was net +20 then 31 votes would be enough for second place.

The two paths to secure second place are to win a higher share of Tom T voters and/or to make a net gain of direct switchers from your rival (eg Jenrick to Badenoch voters)

On the arithmetic, if all of the Tugendhat votes split +10 each to Jenrick and Badenoch, they would then both knock Cleverly out, 41-40-39!

Obviously, this isn’t going to happen politically, but the mathematic threshold to guarantee qualification is 40 rather than 39!

Technically 41 now to *guarantee* a top two slot now that 120 MPs out of 121 are voting rather than 118, 119 in the first two ballots

Team Cleverly would need a clear number of Tom T pledges to be in a position to consider starting to meddle in who his opponent is.

It makes more sense to just try to maximise votes and momentum – and let other MPs mess around at the margin if they want to.

Tory right needs to unite behind Kemi Badenoch, her team argues

James Cleverly and Kemi Badenoch have both posted messages on social media paying tribute to Tom Tugendhat.

Cleverly said:

@TomTugendhat is a close friend who I was privileged to work with at the Home Office. He ran a great campaign and will without doubt have a big role to play in our Party’s future.

And Badenoch said:

Commiserations to my friend @TomTugendhat. He ran a great campaign and led the debate on security and how we stand tall on the world stage in volatile times.

I’m pleased to have increased support and grateful to all of my colleagues who voted for me. This is a very tight race and I’ll continue fighting for every vote. It’s also clear from every independent poll and survey, the support from members for my @Renewal2030 campaign is surging.

And Tom Tugendhat has posted this about his defeat.

To everyone who backed our campaign – thank you!

Your energy, your ideas and your support have shown a vision of what our party could become.

Our campaign has ended but our commitment to our country continues.

James Cleverly has posted this about his victory in the third round ballot today.

I’m grateful to all my colleagues for their support today, and I’m pleased to be through to the next round.

The job’s not finished.

I’m excited to keep spreading our positive Conservative message.

Tory ballot snap analysis – how Cleverly and Badenoch now both have credible path to victory, while Jenrick’s is closing

Here is some comment on the results from the latest Tory leadership ballot.

From my colleague Pippa Crerar

The 20 MPs who backed Tugendhat will now decide who to back in next round.
Many would assume James Cleverly as other more centrist candidate in race.
But they may have views on who they want him to go up against: Badenoch or Jenrick?

From ITV’s Robert Peston

Cleverly now a shoo-in to be in the ballot of Tory members, because most of Tugendhat’s 20 will transfer to him. The battle on the party’s right between Jenrick with 31 and Badenoch with 30 will be something to behold over the next 24 hours

From the Sunday Times’ Harry Yorke

Another Tory leadership contest producing quite the potential upset

Kemi Badenoch almost stationary but Jenrick has gone significantly backwards — not something anyone was predicting before this afternoon

Cleverly soars ahead in Tory leadership contest, as Tugendhat voted out and Jenrick and Badenoch almost neck and neck

Bob Blackman, chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, is due to read out the results of today’s Tory leadership ballot shortly.

Labour was not ready for government, because of too much ‘ambiguity’ over how No 10 would operate, Mandelson says

The former Labour MP John Woodcock is no longer the government’s independent adviser on political violence and disruption, according to Adam Bienkov from Byline Times. The Home Office has confirmed that Woodcock has left the post.

Woodcock was elected a Labour MP in 2010 but he was very critical of Jeremy Corbyn when Corbyn was leader, left the party partly as a result of disciplinary proceedings that he said were politically motivated and at the time of the 2019 election urged people to vote for Boris Johnson, not Corbyn. He was subsequently given a peerage, as Lord Walney, and he became the political violence adviser in 2020.

In May this year he published a report with recommendations that were criticised as draconian. The then Conservative government only gave it a lukewarm reception, and Labour has not embraced the recommendations either.

In the Commons MPs are debating a Conservative opposition day motion criticising the government’s plan to impose VAT on school fees. This is one issue on which the Tories are united; all four leadership candidates have opposed the move, and said they want to reverse it.

The debate was opened by Damian Hinds, the shadow education secretary, who is not a leadership candidate.

Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, was criticised for a post on X where she justified the tax by referring to private schools cutting back on embossed stationery and swimming pools to help fund it.

Our state schools need teachers more than private schools need embossed stationery.

Our children need mental health support more than private schools need new pools.

Our students need careers advice more than private schools need AstroTurf pitches

The Conservative MP Graham Stuart said this was a “malicious and spiteful tweet” and he said James Murray, the Treasury minister speaking on behalf of the government, should apologise for it on Phillipson’s behalf.

But Murray replied:

I, nor any of my colleagues, will make any apology for wanting to improve state education across this country to make sure that the aspiration of every parent in our country to get the best possible education for their children can be fulfilled.

More in Common have now published their voting intention polling figures mentioned earlier. This is from Luke Tryl’s, its director, who also points out that the combined total for parties on the right (47% – Conservatives 28%, plus Reform UK 19%) is almost the same as the combined total for parties on the left (49% – Labour 29%, Lib Dems 11%, Greens 7% and SNP 2%).

Voters see Cleverly as Tory leadership candidate with best chance of becoming PM, poll suggests

Like many Guardian readers, including a lot of you BTL, Anushka Asthana, ITV’s political editor, is annoyed by reports that suggest Sue Gray’s departure is best understood as part of a boy’s club plot and Keir Starmer having a problem with women. She has posted these on social media.

Sorry to rant but the whole “boys club” thing irritates me. Of course there is a lot of focus on the Keir’s, Morgan’s and (admittedly numerous) Matt’s but as I’ve discovered Keir Starmer would NOT be PM without the senior women in the operation 1/

Firstly the entire campaign was field directed by a woman. Yeah yeah- totally true that they put two men in charge (don’t they so often!) but Hollie Ridley basically ran the mechanics of the campaign 2/

The strategy director was Deborah Mattinson, the now party chair Ellie Reeves was critical, and as for the new deputy chief of staffs- Jill Cuthbertson and Vidhya Alakeson … 3/

Ask anyone inside Labour and they’ll tell you that Jill Cuthbertson is about as powerful as they come. She was by Gordon Brown’s side in 2010 & Ed Miliband’s in 2015 and was beside Starmer’s at almost every key moment of campaign. She helped make Zelensky meet happen for eg 4/

The turnaround in the reputation with business (which was hard got and is now on shaky ground) was led by Vidhya Alakeson and Katie Martin (Rachel Reeves’ chief of staff) and the CX herself. Alakeson has run big organisations previously 5/

Obviously Sue Gray as chief of staff was also central to that (and her deputy- also a woman- Helene Reardon Bond) so its not surprising her supporters feel she’s been badly treated but they should blame the man who made decision not the women in the team!? 6/

I think the “boys club” does exist in links between boys on either side of the political and media fences – which means the roles of men are so often amplified (and obviously often with reason- I’ve written myself about McSweeney today) but it’s not true that it’s all men 7/

And for what it’s worth I’ve had more women moan about Sue Gray’s role than men. But also true that almost all these people- men & women- have been in Downing st from the start of this operation- so surely all carry blame for what has gone wrong? & Starmer ultimately in charge 8/

Btw that doesn’t mean I think Labour don’t have a woman leader problem – and I talk about this in my book. I’m sure the party- wanting to opt for “safe” option post 2019- at least in part saw Starmer as safe because as a man he was seen as more prime ministerial 9/

Anushka has got more about this in her new book about the election (reviewed here).