It is hard to imagine a greater contrast than going from Phillip Island to Buriram. You are going from the edge of the ocean to the heart of a peninsula, from freezing, blustery winds to calm air and broiling tropical heat. From a track that is open, fast, and flowing with nary a touch of the brakes, to a track where bikes alternate between being hard on the gas and then hard on the brakes. From hypothermia to hyperspeed.
To demonstrate just how very different the two tracks are, here’s the data provided by Triumph in their Moto2 press release, from practice last year. The top image is from Phillip Island, the bottom from Buriram. The third trace from the top is the throttle opening, the line showing how quickly the throttle is opened and how long it is kept wide open.
In the Phillip Island data, you can see that the riders are having to gently feed in the throttle and rarely hit 100% throttle. It is only along the front straight that the throttle is held wide open.
Compare that with the Buriram data. At the Chang International Circuit, there are eight sections where the rider is holding the throttle open, six of those spots for an extended period. Down the front straight, between Turns 1 and 3, and between 3 and 4 you are keeping the throttle pinned and winding through the gears.
You can imagine what that does with fuel. And what it does with brakes. And yet, there is more to Buriram than stop and go. Much like Austria, the Chang International Circuit has long fast straights sewn together with a slower flowing section. At Spielberg, that flowing section is in the middle of the track. At Buriram, it is at the end.
Across the line and you are immediately into the stop-and-go rhythm of the first section. Accelerate hard toward the first corner before braking hard, from nearly 270 km/h down to around 110 km/h. The right hander at the first turn is faster than you expect, not quite a 90° corner, so you carry speed through there and accelerate hard down toward Turn 3. Turn 2 is, like Turn 7 at Misano, the merest kink left with the throttle held open, and preparing for the very hard braking of the hairpin at Turn 3.
Turn 3 is a favorite overtaking spot, but it is also wide enough to allow a couple of lines through it. That leaves you open to attack whether you try to close the door on the entry or on the exit. Because it’s almost impossible to do both.
Out of Turn 3 and heading down to the first real left hander, it is quite the fearsome corner. Scrub 100 km/h off your speed before firing in at speed which are creeping up to 200 km/h. It is an easy place to crash, if you are a little too overeager on fresh tires. And it is a place you really don’t want to crash, precisely because it is so fast.
Out of Turn 4 and a dash of gas before the track gets complicated. More braking into Turn 5, then Turn 6, as the track turns left and back on itself. Another squirt of gas and then throw the bike right again for Turn 7 the first time after the sequence of lefts.
Next chance
Getting the exit of Turn 7 right can give you an important edge at the next hard braking point, the right hander of Turn 8. Accelerate hard out of 7, then look for a gap into Turn 8. If you don’t make it there, all is not lost, as there are two more places to try.
After a short run out of Turn 8, you turn right again for Turn 9, entering the complex right-left-right that leads onto the final straight. The nature of Turns 9 through 11 is such that carrying speed on the way in, or waiting and driving out through Turn 10 and 11 can give you an advantage.
Whether you are ahead or not, the race isn’t over until the final corner. Turn 12, a sharp right turn where the riders are dropping down into first, is do or die. The run to the line out of the final corner is short, so getting past on entrance is pretty much the whole ballgame. Unless you run wide, of course, in which case you are likely to lose a place.
Coloring inside the lines
That is a danger at several places around the track, as Brad Binder can attest. He crossed the line in second in last year’s thrilling race, but was demoted for exceeding track limits at Turn 4, handing Pecco Bagnaia second.
Like Austria, Buriram has a tendency to produce real thrillers. A quarter of a second covered last year’s MotoGP podium. Marc Márquez beat Fabio Quartararo by less than two tenths in 2019, and Andrea Dovizioso by just over a tenth in 2018. The biggest winning gap of all of the races held at Buriram since we first started going there was just under three quarter of a second, which was how close Jack Miller got to Miguel Oliveira in an absolute downpour in 2022. Normally, wet races are decided by seconds. But not at Buriram.
With three rounds to go and 111 points on the table, Buriram is the start of the season showdown. Jorge Martin won both sprint and Sunday race last year, and yet Pecco Bagnaia feels much more confident at the Thai track than he did at Phillip Island. This is a track that suits his riding style and his temperament, much more like Motegi than Phillip Island.
Smarter, not faster
It seems strange to be more optimistic about Buriram, when Martin took the double last year. “Last year he won here being the smartest and not the fastest,” Bagnaia said of his championship rival in the press conference on Thursday. “Because he was competitive from the start of the weekend, but I think that other riders were a bit faster.”
Bagnaia had been faster in the Sunday race, but had been hampered by a poor qualifying position, starting from sixth on the grid. “I was a bit faster in the Sunday race, but I was a bit stuck and a bit behind, and then when I arrived to the leading group I was a bit more in trouble. But considering the tire and considering the track, I think it suits him … it’s not that he will not be fast, but it’s more that this track is a bit more on my side.”
The tires are going to be a factor here. Like the Red Bull Ring, Michelin’s rear tires use the heat resistant construction, to cope with the oppressive heat at the track, and very high track temperatures. This year, the French tire manufacturer has brought a stiffer front tire, to cope the the loads imposed by all those hard braking zones in the heat. We know that Bagnaia likes the special Buriram casing, as he showed by dominating at the Red Bull Ring. His task is to try to replicate that in Thailand and chip away at Jorge Martin’s 20-point lead.
Under pressure
Is Bagnaia feeling the pressure? “I feel like the same as always,” the Ducati Lenovo rider told the pre-event press conference, before pointing out that this was not his first rodeo. “It’s the fourth season in a row that I’m fighting for a championship. It’s true that in 2021 I lost it with three races to go, and in the last two seasons I was always or behind or in front. But for me the strategy is always the same, so preparing well the weekend, the pressure is always the same being the leader or the hunter, it’s the risk that changes a bit. But I think I will do it in the same way like always.”
Marc Márquez harked back to his own memories of fighting for a championship. “It’s not an easy situation for both of them, and a long time ago, I remember what you can feel when you are in that position. You are not enjoying, you just suffering. Because of course you know that in three races you will know if you are a world champion or not,” the Gresini Ducati rider said.
But both riders had a very good chance, Márquez told the press conference. “Apart from that, they are in a good shape, they are super fast. Of course Martin has this small advantage, Pecco needs to maybe take a little bit more risk to recover that advantage, but Pecco already knows how to win a championship. He is two times world champion. And Martin has his opportunity, so let’s see.”
The objective ahead for both riders is simple. For Jorge Martin, he has to follow what Pecco Bagnaia does, try to beat him if he can, and sit behind him if he can’t. Finishing matters more than winning.
Closing the gap
Finishing matters for Bagnaia as well. But we are reaching the stage of the season where finishing is no longer enough. He still has the championship in his own hands – if he wins the remaining sprint races and GPs, Bagnaia will outscore Martin by at least 24 points – but it is getting close to the point where he is going to need help. Bagnaia needs to pull points back, but a crash would be disastrous. Like a tropical thunderstorm, the pressure is in the air, tangible. Bagnaia has to weather that storm if he would be champ.
Championship calculations are complicated by the riders who could get in the way. Though everyone involved will be careful to avoid collisions around Bagnaia and Martin, they still have their own goals and objectives. If a win is on the table, they’ll go for it. If there’s a podium up for grabs, and that hands either Martin or Bagnaia a handful of extra points, they won’t hesitate to take it.
An exasperated Marc Márquez was once again asked about taking points from Bagnaia and Martin in the press conference. He was fighting for third in the championship, he pointed out, as did Enea Bastianini when he was asked the same question.
Márquez took the bull by the horns, and answered the question he suspected was really being asked. “Again in 2015, I was not in the middle and I took points theoretically from somebody. So you never know. You cannot control these things. I will do my 100%.” At Phillip Island in 2015, Márquez had not been in the middle, but in front, taking points from both Jorge Lorenzo, who finished second, and Valentino Rossi, who finished fourth. His objective had been solely to win, and win is what he will do, if he can.
Something old, something new
That will be a good deal more difficult at Buriram than at Phillip Island. In Thailand, the bike matters much more, and the superiority of the GP24 will exert itself again. That could see Enea Bastianini getting involved as well, though the factory Ducati rider had not had a good time here in 2023.
“Last year, I suffered a lot, and we have to check better,” Bastianini said on Thursday. “I’m with much more support now, and also my physical condition during the last year wasn’t so good during this period. But now, I’m confident during this year, and to do something more this year. We have seen during the championship that Friday is very important, and tomorrow will be an important day for me. But I’m ready.”
At Buriram, we may see a threat from outside of Borgo Panigale. Starting from KTM, and last year’s podium rider Brad Binder. The stop-and-go nature of the Thai track should suit the KTM RC16 much more than Phillip Island, and Binder was starting the weekend feeling confident. “I think this is a circuit which has worked well for us, not only last year but before that,” Binder told the press conference. “In general, I feel pretty good, we come into this race quite prepared; we tried a few things at Phillip Island, and we have seemed to make some small steps forward.”
Banged up rookie
Buriram is one track where Pedro Acosta is unlikely to be a factor. The shoulder he dislocated at Phillip Island is still a problem for the GASGAS Tech3 rookie, the injury more serious than he hoped. “It was a partial break of the ligament,” Acosta said. “The shoulder went in and out in quite a violent way and makes everything worse.”
Physio and treatment were helping a lot, and he had a good range of motion, but the biggest problem was the pain. “It is what it is but it improved a lot in the last couple of days so we have to be happy.”
Aprilia could also feature in Thailand. Last year, Aleix Espargaro qualified on the front row of the grid, and crossed the line in fifth, before being demoted for a tire pressure penalty. (In the heat of Buriram, tire pressures could be an issue this year as well, though the harder compounds should help).
Noale calling
So for Espargaro, expectations were high, he said. “This season I don’t really like to put the high expectations, especially this second part of the season, but here in Buriram, I think we have to set a high target because last year we were very competitive, and it looks like this season I’m struggling a little bit when there is a low track temperature, so I will not face this problem here,” the Aprilia rider told reporters. “Yes it will be tough for the temperature of the bike, for the physical, it will be a difficult weekend, but I think it looks a promising weekend and we have to be fast here.”
The problem for Aprilia in Thailand was always the heat. The tightly packed engine of the RS-GP, combined with its aerodynamics leave the rider to deal with a lot of heat emanating from the front of the fairing. Last year, Maverick Viñales pulled in with three laps to go because he couldn’t breathe due to the heat. Aprilia’s engineers have found a few solutions to channel heat away from the rider, but the Aprilia remains the hottest bike on the grid. It will be a race of attrition for both Espargaro and Viñales.
Wingless wonder
At Phillip Island, Raul Fernandez had ridden the Aprilia without any upper wings, the only circuit where that is allowed because of the high winds at the track. The biggest difference for Fernandez was the fact that he found riding the bike a lot less tiring. After Sunday’s race at Phillip Island, he felt that he could have done another race, he told reporters at Buriram.
After a bad start, Fernandez felt comfortable and got into a good rhythm, making up a few of the places he lost at the start. But without the wings, he had to brake earlier and change his riding style. “It’s different to ride the bike,” Fernandez said. “For that maybe lap by lap, I feel better and could start to be fast. And my last part of the race was quite a bit faster.”
Riding without wings would require a lot of changes, Maverick Viñales told reporters. “Obviously you need time, maybe three practices to reset the electronics because it is not the same,” the factory Aprilia rider said.” The only thing I am a bit concerned about is the front tire because now we are running a really hard compound because of the aero. I don’t know if, when we take out the aero, they are going to work.”
Aleix Espargaro was unconvinced, but had not studied the data too deeply to feel comfortable making a judgment. “Difficult really for me to understand what they were looking for. I have to ask Romano (Albesiano), because I didn’t ask yet. But Phillip Island is the only place where you can test. Really nothing to lose, but I’m not sure what you can gain.”
In for a surprise?
If there is a dark horse at Buriram, then it is Yamaha. Not because Fabio Quartararo expects to be battling for the podium, but because he hoped to be closer to the front at least, helped by the layout of the track and the heat-resistant Michelin rear tire.
The difference, according to Quartararo, was that they suffered less of a performance drop with the rear tire than the other bikes. “Different tire, that I think for us won’t be much of a difference, but for the others they have less potential with this tire so this is going to be important. We know that we miss the grip and the top speed and acceleration in this track. But there are other things that we can try to manage to be fast.” The goal, he said, was to try to get through directly to Q2.
Yamaha also have a new ride-height device at Buriram, which should help with acceleration, Alex Rins explained. It was a semi-automatic system similar to the one that Ducati use. The rider pushes a button to arm the system, and the system then drops automatically based on suspension loads, Rins said. The new device is an improved version of the system trialed at the Red Bull Ring.
Will the title be decided in Thailand this weekend, as it was in 2019? That is impossible, even if Martin were to do the double and Bagnaia were to have two DNFs. But this is going to be the most important race of the season in terms of momentum. If Jorge Martin extends his lead in Thailand, it is going to be very tough for Pecco Bagnaia to close the gap and defend his title. But if Bagnaia can claw back points to Martin, the championship is open again.
The psychology of rivalry
The fact that there just two riders left in the championship (realistically, if not quite mathematically) is good for the tension in the title chase. It is easier to pick a side when there are only two choices, instead of having to pick from a handful of riders, Franco Morbidelli said. “If the fight was between more riders, would it have been more fun? I don’t know. Because the head to head fight is probably the best one.”
This year, it is once again the two best riders fighting it out, Morbidelli said. “Pecco and Jorge were the best this year, and last year as well actually. So they deserve what they are fighting for, they both deserve this championship, and it’s going to be very very nice for the fans to follow the battle.”
Other riders could play a role, Morbidelli acknowledged, which only added to the intrigue. “Also because there are riders, mainly Marc and Enea, that can go in the middle of this fight. Well, I would like to go in the middle as well, and lately I have just been able to get in the middle in the early laps of the race.”
Being in the middle, between Jorge Martin and Pecco Bagnaia, would put him in a uniquely awkward situation. On the one hand, he is a good friend and fellow VR46 Academy member to Bagnaia. On the other, he is Pramac Ducati teammate to Martin. But that didn’t complicate things for Morbidelli. “I’ll try to remember that I’m a rider, and what I want to do. Which is win.”
What he wanted to see was a straight fight between Martin and Bagnaia, Morbidelli said. “Anyway, I think the head to head battle is the best one. So for sure it’s good for MotoGP. It’s better than somebody winning already. And it’s better than four riders fighting for the championship, I think. Because the head to head fight is the best one.” Given the way 2024 has played out, and what happened here in 2023, we have a good chance that a head to head fight is exactly what we will get.
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